Sunday, 17 April 2016

4th, 3rd, 4th, Repeat...

That I named my last blog post just over two weeks ago "Predicting the Unpredictable" all seems fairly ironic now. What seemed to be an unpredictable end to the season from an Arsenal perspective has an air of inevitability about it in retrospect. Two weeks and three games later, Arsenal remain in the title race only in mathematical terms. The same old problems have resurfaced, and yet again we face a fight not for the title, but for the coveted 3rd and 4th places. It's all quite depressing really, and overanalysing the results and performances of the last few months seems futile.

Certain themes, however, have emerged in the last few months at Arsenal, and I think there are two big reasons the title won't be coming to (the right side of) North London.

1. We need to talk about Danny...



Before I go on, I want to put it on record that I am a fan of both Olivier Giroud and Danny Welbeck. I think they are two good, solid players who certainly offer something to the Arsenal squad. However, as much as I might like them, what this season has shown more than anything is that you simply cannot win the league without a top striker. It's no coincidence that the top scorers in the league this year are the frontmen for the two title challengers. Both Kane and Vardy are likely to reach 25 goals in the league this year, and I fear it is time to admit that neither Giroud or Welbeck are ever going to be 25 goal a season strikers.

Do I think they should be sold? Not necessarily. As options from the bench, or even to partner another forward, they are more than good enough in a title winning squad. That said, with the need for a world class forward greater than ever, I would be surprised if someone were to come in to see both Giroud and Welbeck still at the club in 2016-17. So, that leaves two questions.

Firstly, which one do we keep and which do we sell? I think this partly depends on the interest in both players from other clubs. However, I think the obvious player to go is Giroud. Whilst he is possibly the more regular scorer, he hasn't been consistently scoring since Christmas really, and the trouble is that when Giroud doesn't score, he can't offer a whole lot more to the side, whereas Welbeck's movement and range of passing can cause problems for the opposition. The Frenchman's record for Arsenal is 76 goals in 178 games, which isn't bad, but for a lone striker in a side that creates as many chances as we do, I would suggest a top return would be 100+.



The second question then is who we should have our eyes on to get this sort of goal return. This is a question more for Arsene than me, and I am vastly unqualified to answer it. Of course, I would also only be speculating about possible targets. There are two players that have caught my eye, and whilst neither might be realistic, I think this is the calibre of player we ought to be considering. These two are:

1. Pierre-Emerick Aubemayang. Not much needs to be said, Dortmund's star man has been scoring goals for fun this season. He's quick and a handful to any opposition, if we could get him at a reasonable price this would be an absolutely top signing, no doubt about it.

2. Romelu Lukaku. To me, Lukaku is an improved version of Giroud, with more movement and better finishing. His goal return in a poor Everton side has been stunning (25 goals in 36 appearances this year). However, his hefty price tag could put off any club that isn't called PSG, I fear.

2. The Fans



This season more than any I can remember the atmosphere at the Emirates has been toxic, and when things go wrong I can imagine it is not a pleasant place to play your home football. Watching Leicester games at the Kingpower in recent weeks has really illustrated what a difference good support can make: those fans are behind every one of the players 100%, whether they are winning, drawing or losing.

Now I can't say that i've always been delighted at some of the football and some of the results at the Emirates this year. I can certainly understand the fans' frustrations when, in the middle of a title race, we turn a winning position at home to swansea into a loss. However, I find it very difficult to then start heaping blame not he players for our poor home form. It is a two-way thing, and if you don't back your team and spend your whole time booing and producing unhelpful 'Wenger Out' banners, when the home results start to dip you simply cannot be surprised. The players and management are certainly not blameless this season, but I can't help thinking that with full support and backing from every fan inside The Emirates, some of these home results may have been slightly different, and who knows where we might be now.

So here's what I think. If you are an Arsenal fan who wants Wenger to go, by all means make your voice heard at the end of the season. If you're so inclined, do it after the last game, that's fine as well. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and whilst I am still firmly behind Arsene, I can understand that not everyone is so convinced. But if he is still there for next season, the minute the first game kicks off in August, wouldn't it be nice if every fan united in support of our team for the new season, even if things start to go wrong at times? At the end of the day, the one thing that unites every Gooner is that we all want the best for Arsenal FC, even if we differ on what we think will bring this result. A unified fanbase who really gets behind the team might just make an important difference.



Anyway, that's about as much Arsenal talk as I can handle for the time being; the wounds are all still a bit fresh. To finish, I thought I'd have another crack at predicting the final games of the season in a title race that now doesn't involve us. Obviously I am desperate for Leicester to win it, given how unpalatable the alternative is, but I will try and take off my goonervision and predict it objectively...

Leicester (73 points)

Swansea (h)  WIN
Man Utd (a)  LOSS
Everton (h)   DRAW
Chelsea (a)   DRAW

PREDICTED POINTS: 78

Sp*rs (65 points)

Stoke (a)   WIN
WBA (h)   WIN
Chelsea (a)   DRAW
Southampton (h) WIN
Newcastle (a) DRAW

PREDICTED POINTS: 76



How nice. It's very hard to predict, but I still think one way or another Leicester will win this title. However, anything can happen in football, so if Ranieri's men would hurry up and clinch it before the nightmares of Kane lifting the trophy kick in, that would be just swell.

Till next time.




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