Sunday, 17 April 2016

4th, 3rd, 4th, Repeat...

That I named my last blog post just over two weeks ago "Predicting the Unpredictable" all seems fairly ironic now. What seemed to be an unpredictable end to the season from an Arsenal perspective has an air of inevitability about it in retrospect. Two weeks and three games later, Arsenal remain in the title race only in mathematical terms. The same old problems have resurfaced, and yet again we face a fight not for the title, but for the coveted 3rd and 4th places. It's all quite depressing really, and overanalysing the results and performances of the last few months seems futile.

Certain themes, however, have emerged in the last few months at Arsenal, and I think there are two big reasons the title won't be coming to (the right side of) North London.

1. We need to talk about Danny...



Before I go on, I want to put it on record that I am a fan of both Olivier Giroud and Danny Welbeck. I think they are two good, solid players who certainly offer something to the Arsenal squad. However, as much as I might like them, what this season has shown more than anything is that you simply cannot win the league without a top striker. It's no coincidence that the top scorers in the league this year are the frontmen for the two title challengers. Both Kane and Vardy are likely to reach 25 goals in the league this year, and I fear it is time to admit that neither Giroud or Welbeck are ever going to be 25 goal a season strikers.

Do I think they should be sold? Not necessarily. As options from the bench, or even to partner another forward, they are more than good enough in a title winning squad. That said, with the need for a world class forward greater than ever, I would be surprised if someone were to come in to see both Giroud and Welbeck still at the club in 2016-17. So, that leaves two questions.

Firstly, which one do we keep and which do we sell? I think this partly depends on the interest in both players from other clubs. However, I think the obvious player to go is Giroud. Whilst he is possibly the more regular scorer, he hasn't been consistently scoring since Christmas really, and the trouble is that when Giroud doesn't score, he can't offer a whole lot more to the side, whereas Welbeck's movement and range of passing can cause problems for the opposition. The Frenchman's record for Arsenal is 76 goals in 178 games, which isn't bad, but for a lone striker in a side that creates as many chances as we do, I would suggest a top return would be 100+.



The second question then is who we should have our eyes on to get this sort of goal return. This is a question more for Arsene than me, and I am vastly unqualified to answer it. Of course, I would also only be speculating about possible targets. There are two players that have caught my eye, and whilst neither might be realistic, I think this is the calibre of player we ought to be considering. These two are:

1. Pierre-Emerick Aubemayang. Not much needs to be said, Dortmund's star man has been scoring goals for fun this season. He's quick and a handful to any opposition, if we could get him at a reasonable price this would be an absolutely top signing, no doubt about it.

2. Romelu Lukaku. To me, Lukaku is an improved version of Giroud, with more movement and better finishing. His goal return in a poor Everton side has been stunning (25 goals in 36 appearances this year). However, his hefty price tag could put off any club that isn't called PSG, I fear.

2. The Fans



This season more than any I can remember the atmosphere at the Emirates has been toxic, and when things go wrong I can imagine it is not a pleasant place to play your home football. Watching Leicester games at the Kingpower in recent weeks has really illustrated what a difference good support can make: those fans are behind every one of the players 100%, whether they are winning, drawing or losing.

Now I can't say that i've always been delighted at some of the football and some of the results at the Emirates this year. I can certainly understand the fans' frustrations when, in the middle of a title race, we turn a winning position at home to swansea into a loss. However, I find it very difficult to then start heaping blame not he players for our poor home form. It is a two-way thing, and if you don't back your team and spend your whole time booing and producing unhelpful 'Wenger Out' banners, when the home results start to dip you simply cannot be surprised. The players and management are certainly not blameless this season, but I can't help thinking that with full support and backing from every fan inside The Emirates, some of these home results may have been slightly different, and who knows where we might be now.

So here's what I think. If you are an Arsenal fan who wants Wenger to go, by all means make your voice heard at the end of the season. If you're so inclined, do it after the last game, that's fine as well. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and whilst I am still firmly behind Arsene, I can understand that not everyone is so convinced. But if he is still there for next season, the minute the first game kicks off in August, wouldn't it be nice if every fan united in support of our team for the new season, even if things start to go wrong at times? At the end of the day, the one thing that unites every Gooner is that we all want the best for Arsenal FC, even if we differ on what we think will bring this result. A unified fanbase who really gets behind the team might just make an important difference.



Anyway, that's about as much Arsenal talk as I can handle for the time being; the wounds are all still a bit fresh. To finish, I thought I'd have another crack at predicting the final games of the season in a title race that now doesn't involve us. Obviously I am desperate for Leicester to win it, given how unpalatable the alternative is, but I will try and take off my goonervision and predict it objectively...

Leicester (73 points)

Swansea (h)  WIN
Man Utd (a)  LOSS
Everton (h)   DRAW
Chelsea (a)   DRAW

PREDICTED POINTS: 78

Sp*rs (65 points)

Stoke (a)   WIN
WBA (h)   WIN
Chelsea (a)   DRAW
Southampton (h) WIN
Newcastle (a) DRAW

PREDICTED POINTS: 76



How nice. It's very hard to predict, but I still think one way or another Leicester will win this title. However, anything can happen in football, so if Ranieri's men would hurry up and clinch it before the nightmares of Kane lifting the trophy kick in, that would be just swell.

Till next time.




Friday, 1 April 2016

Predicting the Unpredictable: The Return of the Blog

Hello, hello. After a blog-less spell stretching back almost three years, I think the eve of what feels like a critical weekend in the most exciting title race for years is a good time to start up again. So here goes!



I'll start by saying that, as will be obvious to those who don't know me from the original title of the blog 'Let's Talk Arsenal' made by my 15 year-old self, I am an Arsenal fan. In fact, that's probably understating it. I am mad about all things Arsenal- every win puts a gleaming smile on my face, every defeat ruins my week. And, as is often the case with Arsenal, I could discuss what's gone wrong at the football club this year endlessly. But I don't want to do that.

Most years, I would have no problem doing it, particularly when the alternative is discussing Chelsea walking to the title under Mourinho, or United winning it under Ferguson, as has been the case in recent years. But the same old problems are coming to the surface yet again in North London, and it feels about as counter-productive discussing them as bringing Mathieu Flamini on in a big Champions League game against the best team in the world.

What I will say is this: I am strongly against the huge criticisms levied at Arsene Wenger in recent weeks. Whilst I don't agree with every decision the man makes, he has done a huge amount of good for Arsenal, and I still firmly believe he is the best man for the job. Much of the criticism that Wenger gets is something along the lines of 'He should've signed a striker in the summer'.

Firstly, what Arsenal fans and fans of other clubs often don't consider, is that perhaps the player to improve what you already have just isn't out there and available. If you are listing strikers who are better than what we have (Giroud) you will likely list players in the ilk of Cavani, Benzema, Kane and so on. But why would PSG, Real Madrid or Tottenham sell these players to us? Secondly, I think Arsenal fans in particular can be very naive in believing all the media 'hype' about how much money Wenger is given to spend. How often when it comes to the end of a season, near to season-ticket renewal date, will you see a headine in a newspaper reading something like:

"WENGER TO BE GIVEN £70 MILLION TRANSFER KITTY TO SPLASH CASH IN SUMMER"



Sadly, I think this is often far from the truth. I cannot buy that a man as intelligent as Wenger is given these ludicrous sums of money to spend every summer, and rarely spends a penny (in net terms). Whatever is going on behind the scenes, I think you'd find that Wenger is far more restricted in what he can and can't do in the transfer market than people give him credit for.

Anyway, enough of that. Far too depressing. Given we're heading into the home straight in the title race, I thought i'd give my predictions and analysis of what might be to come, starting with the dark horses* themselves...

ARSENAL (Current Points: 55)

WATFORD (H) WIN 
WEST HAM (A) DRAW
CRYSTAL PALACE (H) WIN
WEST BROM (H) WIN
SUNDERLAND (A) WIN
NORWICH (H) WIN
MAN CITY (A) DRAW
ASTON VILLA (H) WIN

PREDICTED POINTS: 75


SPURS (Current Points: 61)

LIVERPOOL (A) DRAW
MAN UNITED (H) WIN
STOKE (A) DRAW
WBA (H) WIN
CHELSEA (A) LOSE
SOUTHAMPTON (H) WIN
NEWCASTLE (A) DRAW

PREDICTED POINTS: 73


LEICESTER (Current Points: 66)

SOUTHAMPTON (H) WIN
SUNDERLAND (A) DRAW
WEST HAM (H) DRAW
SWANSEA (H) WIN
MAN UNITED (A) DRAW
EVERTON (H) WIN
CHELSEA (A) LOSE

PREDICTED POINTS: 78

My final top three therefore reads:
1. Leicester (78)
2. Arsenal (75)
3. Spurs (73)



A brief word on this, then. The first thing to note is that, despite being pretty harsh on Leicester, if anything (draws away at Sunderland and home to West Ham particularly) they still come out on top. Many are touting this as a two-horse race, but, when you look at it, it really is Leicester's to lose now. And if the pressure does get too much for them, I certainly don't see it as a given that Spurs will be the team to capitalise. Not only have Spurs got a really tough looking fixture list, it's also worth bearing in mind that Spurs always do find a way of finishing below Arsenal (at the time of writing it's been 7627 days since the unthinkable last happened).

Finally, here are my other key predictions for the final league standings:

4th place: West Ham- they are in magnificent form, and with some very winnable home games to come against Swansea, Palace and Watford, I see them sneaking into the Champions League before moving to the Olympic Stadium. Watch this space.

Bottom 3: Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Villa. Firstly, I see Sunderland making a relatively early exit, with one or two games to spare: for me, their squad severely lacks the quality that will be needed. The final place is a toss-up between Palace and Newcastle, but because I see Benitez getting some decent results in his return to English football, I am going for a bit of a shock exit from the top division for Alan Pardew's men.

That's all for today- hopefully not for the next three years though!